Growth plan for Compass Coffee, 1 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Compass Coffee already has a repeatable hook: 10% off every order on the Coffee Club, and free shipping on all 2lb and 5lb bags. The plan tests it against one number to protect, a target CAC of $20.16, and kills losers early.
- Target CAC
- $20.16
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $20.16 CAC on a $16.99 tin
The one number to protect is a target CAC of $20.16. It is 0.6 of a $33.60 ceiling: a $42 average order, 40% margin, one repeat order. Spend goes up while Compass Coffee stays under that line, and stops when it does not.
Protect
Target CAC: $20.16 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $42 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $33.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $33.60 = $20.16. Across the ranges: $8.92 to $112.04.
Three moves
- Creator videos climb from 14 to 70 a week, so the hook library fills before spend rises.
- One variable per test on the Shaw Blend 12oz Tin at $16.99 and the Coffee Club offer; losers killed early.
- Daily CAC read against $20.16 and $33.60; anything past $33.60 is stopped.
- reviews count shown on a Compass page
- 643
- Published
- stores reached through Rainforest Distribution
- 1500+
- Published
- Coffee Club saving on every order
- 10%
- Published
02 Variety
Nine blends need more than one ad: each carries one reason
Each concept carries one reason to buy, not a list. Compass sells tins at $16.99, 2lb bags at $41.99, capsules at $54.00 and a nine-blend World Explorer Subscription at $46.99, so a concept can be a ritual, a saving, a shipping rule or a trip around the world.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Pick your roast level | Pick your roast level to see blends you'll love: | 5 |
| Three tins, free shipping | Buy any three tins get free shipping | 3 |
| Free shipping on bulk bags | Enjoy FREE SHIPPING on all 2lb and 5lb bags! | 3 |
| Subscribe and save | Subscribe and save 10% on every order! | 2 |
| Pause or cancel anytime | Pause or Cancel Anytime | 2 |
| Dark chocolate and caramel | A medium Italian roast, you can expect notes of dark chocolate & caramel with a sweet, balanced flavor. | 2 |
| Recyclable capsules | Our capsules are 100% aluminum and are fully recyclable. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, two from Compass's shipping and subscription rules
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping rules differ by product, so an ad promises the wrong shipping | Med | Med | Both | Every shipping line matched to the claims sheet before launch; zero live ads with an unchecked line. |
| Coffee Club 10% off carries every ad, so one angle fatigues fast | Med | High | Me | No single angle above half of the weekly new ads. |
| The $20.16 target is missed because the $42 average order is a guess | Med | High | Both | Week one replaces $42 with Compass's real average order before week two spend. |
| Repeat orders arrive too late, so payback never closes | Med | High | Your team | Monthly cohort payback read at day 30; with no repeat orders, scaling stops. |
| Tracking misses Coffee Club signups, so CAC is read wrong | Med | High | Your team | Signup and first-order events match store orders before week two spend. |
| Creators overstate the capsules' recyclable or decaf wording | Low | Med | Me | Only Compass's own capsule wording used; claims sheet agreed before any video posts. |
| Test spend burns on 12oz tins at $16.99 that cannot clear the ceiling | Med | Med | Me | A concept above $33.60 CAC after its test budget is stopped at week 2. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $33.60: a $42 order at 40% margin, repeating once
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $42 (range $16.99–$82.99) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $33.60 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $20.16 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $42 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $33.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $33.60 = $20.16. Across the ranges: $8.92 to $112.04.
Range across the assumptions: $9 to $112.
The $42 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses. The $33.60 ceiling and $20.16 guard line follow from them. Week one replaces each with Compass's real figures.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks and $24,000 of tests before any scaling
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $20 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $20 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $20 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $20 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $20 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $20 |
Week 1 and week 2 run 12 ads each at $250, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total: $24,000 of tests. Winners move up; losers stop early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Volume lowers CAC: 80 concepts, 8 winners, if the hit rate holds
More concepts mean more chances at a winner. If hit rate and spend per winner hold (both Assumption), 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 give 8 winners and $72,000.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 split four ways, with tins and the Coffee Club as test units
- Meta tests: tins, bags and the Coffee Club offer
- $45,000
- 45%
- Creator pay and product for ten live creators
- $25,000
- 25%
- Scaling winners that hold the $20.16 line
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and reporting
- $10,000
- 10%
The $100,000 budget is Proposed; tests and winners take most of it because creative is the lever on CAC.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; channels earn their place beside 1500+ stores
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads at $250 each | Fastest read on which tin, bag or Coffee Club angle holds $20.16. |
| TikTok | When Meta winners hold the guard line for two weeks | Creator cuts of home brewing and Chemex iced coffee can run there too. |
| YouTube | After week six, once ten creators have footage | Longer cold brew recipes suit it; Compass already publishes the method. |
| Google Search | Week 3, brand and blend names only | Creators name blends like Waypoint and Emblem Espresso; search catches the name. |
| Week 4, once Coffee Club signups are tracked | Subscribers save 10% on every order, so retention mail protects the repeat order. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback is the constraint: a $42 order needs a repeat order
Payback is the real constraint. With a $33.60 ceiling, a CAC of $10 pays back on the first order with $23.60 left; $20 pays back after repeat orders with $13.60 left; $35 and $45 never pay back, so we stop. Coffee Club's 10% off makes the repeat order the whole game.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $16.80, $33.60.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $16.80 | $33.60 | $23.60 | First order |
| $20 | $16.80 | $33.60 | $13.60 | After repeat orders |
| $35 | $16.80 | $33.60 | −$1.40 | Never: stop |
| $45 | $16.80 | $33.60 | −$11.40 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $33.60 − $10 = $23.60 left; pays back: First order; CAC $20: $33.60 − $20 = $13.60 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $35: $33.60 − $35 = −$1.40 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $45: $33.60 − $45 = −$11.40 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads and creators, not Compass cafe operations
Covers
- Meta ad testing on tins, bags, capsules and the Coffee Club offer
- Creator recruiting, briefs and pay for ten live creators
- A claims sheet built from Compass's own wording
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build; I spec it, your team ships it
- Compass cafe operations
- Roasting, fulfilment or shipping speed
- Coffee category experience: I have none
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | CAC reads under $33.60 on at least one concept and tracking matches store orders | No concept under $33.60 after $6,000 of tests |
| Day 30 | A winning concept holds under $20.16 for a full week at rising spend | CAC above $33.60 for seven days at any spend |
| Day 60 | Monthly cohort shows repeat orders paying back inside the $33.60 ceiling | CAC above $33.60 with no repeat orders in the cohort |
| Day 90 | Spend scaled toward the $100,000 budget with CAC still at or under $20.16 | CAC above $20.16 on all scaled spend |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Blends, tins and a Chemex iced coffee recipe | A hook library of tested angles | 1st |
| creators | A Brand Ambassador page: must be 18 years or older | A paid roster of ten creators with briefs | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Free shipping on orders over $45 and all 2lb and 5lb bags | One agreed wording per offer and capsule claim | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Coffee Club offer: 10% off on every order | Pages per concept: tin, bag, capsule, explorer pack | 2nd |
| reporting | Prepaid monthly option and a 30-day refund policy | Daily CAC and cohort payback view | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 643 reviews count shown on a Compass page | https://www.compasscoffee.com/ | Fact |
| 1500+ stores reached through Rainforest Distribution | https://www.compasscoffee.com/pages/compass-press | Fact |
| 10% Coffee Club saving on every order | https://www.compasscoffee.com/ | Fact |
| Product prices $16.99–$82.99 | product prices in the site product data (57 products), read 2026-10-01 | Fact |
| $42 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $20.16 target CAC | 0.6 of the $33.60 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $33.60 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read the claims on shipping, Coffee Club and capsules, set the first creator briefs and the first 12 ads around the Shaw Blend tin, and agree with your team which events count as a signup and a first order.
